Currently, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery operates at its full installed capacity of 650,000 barrels per day. However, it has been receiving only five cargoes of crude monthly, far below the expected 13 to 15 cargoes. This discrepancy has raised concerns among oil marketers and domestic crude refiners, who have called on the Federal Government to boost crude supply to local refineries.

The naira-for-crude deal, designed to stabilize Nigeria’s foreign exchange market, has been a focal point in discussions surrounding the fuel supply situation. A senior management official of the Dangote Group stated, “The naira-for-crude deal was conceived by His Excellency, the President,” highlighting the government’s involvement in addressing the fuel supply challenges.

Jeremiah Olatide, a spokesperson for the NMDPRA, confirmed that the decision to issue import licenses was made to tackle the supply gap. He noted, “Yes, it’s true. NMDPRA has begun issuing import permits; the number of permits issued lately is relatively low, which shows local refining still dominates, but we need to stabilize the market through imports.” This statement underscores the ongoing reliance on local refineries while acknowledging the necessity of imports to meet demand.

In February 2026, local refineries supplied 36.5 million litres of petrol per day, with imports contributing only 3 million litres. This stark contrast illustrates the significant role that local production plays in Nigeria’s fuel market, yet the recent import licenses indicate a shift in strategy to ensure adequate supply.

David Bird, another industry expert, emphasized that the naira-for-crude deal is not solely beneficial to the Dangote refinery, stating, “The naira-for-crude deal is not there to benefit the Dangote refinery. That is a fundamental misunderstanding.” His remarks reflect the complexities of the current fuel supply dynamics and the broader implications for the industry.

As the Federal Government navigates these challenges, observers are keenly watching how the reopening of fuel imports will impact the market. The NMDPRA’s action is seen as a temporary measure to address immediate supply concerns, but the long-term effects on local refineries and the overall fuel market remain to be seen. Details remain unconfirmed regarding the exact timeline for the imports and how they will be integrated into the existing supply chain.

With the Dangote refinery operating at full capacity yet struggling with crude supply, the government’s decision to reopen fuel imports marks a significant shift in policy aimed at stabilizing Nigeria’s fuel market amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply uncertainties.

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The recent adjustments to the Dangote refinery fuel price have raised questions about the impact on consumers and the broader market. On March 10, 2026, the refinery announced a reduction in its ex-gantry petrol price to ₦1,075 per litre, down from ₦1,175 per litre. This marks a significant decrease of ₦100 per litre, offering some relief to consumers after a series of price hikes.

Details of the price adjustments

Alongside the reduction in petrol prices, the price of diesel has also seen a decline, dropping to ₦1,430 per litre from ₦1,620 per litre. The coastal distribution price for petrol is now set at ₦1,050 per litre. This price cut comes as the first adjustment following three consecutive increases in petrol prices, which had reached ₦995 per litre just days prior on March 7, 2026, and ₦874 per litre on March 2, 2026.

Context behind the price changes

The adjustments in fuel prices at the Dangote refinery are reflective of the ongoing volatility in the global oil market, influenced by various geopolitical events. According to a statement from the refinery, “Under the revised pricing structure, the gantry price of PMS has been reduced from ₦1,175 to ₦1,075 (₦100) per litre.” This indicates a strategic response to fluctuating oil prices and market conditions.

Industry experts have noted the importance of the Dangote refinery in stabilizing fuel supply in Nigeria. Dr. Billy Gillis-Harry remarked, “The reality is that if you look at the volatility in the price from what we are seeing today, the Dangote Refinery is the salvation for us due to the consistent source of product, which is much more important at this time than anything.” This sentiment underscores the refinery’s role in ensuring a reliable fuel supply amidst market uncertainties.

Challenges and future outlook

Despite the recent price reductions, challenges remain for the energy sector. David Bird, a spokesperson, indicated that they have paused loadings as of midnight to update the system to the new gantry price, citing a spike in oil prices of $30 in the last 24 hours. This highlights the ongoing fluctuations that can impact pricing and availability.

As the Dangote refinery navigates the complexities of the oil market, consumers will be closely monitoring how these price adjustments affect their daily lives. While the recent reductions provide some relief, the situation remains fluid, and further changes may be on the horizon. Details remain unconfirmed regarding the long-term implications of these adjustments on fuel supply and pricing stability.

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The price of fuel in Nigeria has been influenced by global crude oil prices and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Recently, the Dangote Refinery announced a reduction in petrol prices, bringing the cost down to N1,075 per litre from N1,175 per litre. Additionally, the price of diesel has been reduced to N1,430 per litre from N1,620 per litre.

In terms of distribution, petrol supplied through coastal channels will now sell at N1,050 per litre. However, prices vary across different regions, with petrol prices in Abuja currently ranging between N1,260 and N1,280 per litre, while in Lagos, prices are between N1,200 and N1,300 per litre.

Prior to these recent changes, petrol prices were between N809 and N835 per litre, indicating a significant increase before the latest reductions. The price of diesel has also seen a reduction of N190 per litre, which may provide some relief to consumers and businesses reliant on this fuel.

Government Response

In response to the fluctuating fuel prices, President Bola Tinubu has ordered the deployment of 100,000 CNG conversion kits, aiming to diversify fuel sources and reduce dependence on traditional petrol and diesel.

These developments come amid warnings from global oil executives about potential disruptions in oil supply chains, particularly concerning the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for global energy supplies. Amin Nasser, the CEO of Saudi Aramco, has highlighted the catastrophic consequences that could arise from continued disruptions.

As the situation evolves, observers are closely monitoring the impact of these price adjustments on the Nigerian economy and consumer behavior. The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) is expected to continue overseeing these changes to ensure market stability.

Details remain unconfirmed regarding the long-term effects of these price changes, but the immediate response from consumers and businesses will likely shape the future of fuel pricing in Nigeria.

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As of March 10, 2026, the price of petrol in Nigeria has been reduced to ₦1,075 per litre from ₦1,175 per litre, while diesel now costs ₦1,430 per litre, down from ₦1,620 per litre. This adjustment reflects a significant shift in the fuel pricing landscape, primarily driven by a decline in global crude oil prices.

Details of the Price Reductions

The Dangote Refinery, a key player in Nigeria’s oil sector, has implemented these price changes, which also include petrol supplied through coastal distribution now selling at ₦1,050 per litre. This is a notable decrease from previous prices, which had seen petrol rise to ₦1,175 per litre just days earlier on March 7, 2026. Prior to that, the price was ₦995 per litre on March 2, 2026.

Context of Price Changes

The recent fluctuations in fuel prices are set against a backdrop of geopolitical tensions, particularly involving the United States, Iran, and Israel, which have historically influenced global oil prices. The ongoing conflict has led to increased volatility in oil markets, prompting a rise in petrol prices in Nigeria prior to this recent reduction.

Expectations for Future Prices

Despite the current reductions, analysts predict that petrol prices may still exceed ₦1,200 per litre in Lagos and could reach around ₦1,300 in other parts of Nigeria. This expectation stems from the average daily crude oil consumption in Nigeria, which stands at approximately 60.2 million litres, indicating a high demand that could sustain elevated prices.

Industry experts have commented on the significance of these changes. Dr. Billy Gillis-Harry noted, “The reality is that if you look at the volatility in the price from what we are seeing today, the Dangote Refinery is the salvation for us due to the consistent source of product.” This highlights the refinery’s role in stabilizing fuel supply amidst fluctuating global prices.

Global Oil Market Influences

As the situation evolves, the impact of international relations on oil supply remains a critical factor. Donald Trump has previously stated that any disruption in oil flow, particularly through key regions like the Strait of Hormuz, could lead to severe repercussions. He remarked, “If Iran do anytin wey stop di flow of Oil within di Strait of Hormuz, di United States of America go hit dem TWENTY TIMES HARDER dan we bin don hit so far.” Such statements underscore the interconnectedness of global oil markets and local fuel prices.

As Nigeria navigates these changes in fuel pricing, the implications for consumers and the broader economy are significant. While current reductions offer some relief, the potential for future price increases looms, leaving many observers awaiting further developments. Details remain unconfirmed regarding how these geopolitical tensions will continue to influence fuel prices in the coming weeks.

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In a significant move, Dangote Refinery has reduced the price of petrol to N1,075 per litre from N1,175 per litre, effective today. The price adjustment also includes a reduction in diesel prices, which now stand at N1,430 per litre, down from N1,620 per litre.

This price change is attributed to a recent decline in global crude oil prices, which have been volatile in recent months. The price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) supplied through coastal distribution will now sell at N1,050 per litre.

Despite the reductions, some filling stations are still charging higher rates, with petrol prices reaching N1,400 per litre at certain locations. Additionally, diesel prices could potentially rise to N1,750 per litre at filling stations in Abuja, indicating ongoing fluctuations in the market.

The backdrop to these adjustments is a history of rapid increases in fuel prices in Nigeria, driven largely by global crude price volatility. Before this recent adjustment, the price of petrol had surged by N525 per litre at Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) retail outlets.

Industry experts have weighed in on the situation. Billy Gillis-Harry noted, “We have a Naira-for-crude deal in place. However, the policy does not impact the crude oil price on the international crude oil market.” Chinedu Ukadike added, “The only benefit of Dangote Refinery is that there will be supply, no fuel scarcity.”

As global oil prices continue to fluctuate, with Brent crude recently peaking at $104.4 per barrel before moderating to $99.4 per barrel, the implications for fuel pricing in Nigeria remain a point of concern for consumers and analysts alike. David Bird remarked, “I think it is very clear from global headlines that what is going on in the Middle East is impacting not just the oil price but also gas and LNG.”

Details remain unconfirmed regarding the long-term stability of these prices, as observers continue to monitor the situation closely.

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In a significant move, Dangote Refinery has reduced the price of petrol to N1,075 per litre from N1,175 per litre. Additionally, the price of diesel has been lowered to N1,430 per litre from N1,620 per litre. This adjustment reflects a response to recent fluctuations in global crude oil prices.

The new price for Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), which is supplied through coastal distribution, will now be N1,050 per litre. This change comes as the global oil market experiences a decline, with Brent crude prices peaking at $104.4 per barrel before moderating to $99.4 per barrel.

Despite these reductions, some filling stations in Nigeria are still selling petrol at prices as high as N1,400 per litre. Furthermore, there are concerns that diesel prices could rise to N1,750 per litre at filling stations in Abuja, indicating ongoing volatility in the fuel market.

The price of petrol had seen a substantial increase of N525 per litre at Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) retail outlets prior to these recent adjustments. This history of rapid price increases has been largely attributed to the volatility of global crude oil prices, which have been influenced by various geopolitical factors.

Industry experts have weighed in on the situation. Billy Gillis-Harry noted, “We have a Naira-for-crude deal in place. However, the policy does not impact the crude oil price on the international crude oil market.” This highlights the complexities of local fuel pricing in relation to global market trends.

Chinedu Ukadike commented on the implications of the Dangote Refinery’s operations, stating, “The only benefit of Dangote Refinery is that there will be supply, no fuel scarcity.” This sentiment underscores the refinery’s role in stabilizing supply amidst fluctuating prices.

David Bird added, “I think it is very clear from global headlines that what is going on in the Middle East is impacting not just the oil price but also gas and LNG.” This context is vital as it illustrates how international events can have direct repercussions on local fuel prices.

As the market continues to evolve, observers are closely monitoring the situation to see how these price adjustments will affect consumer behavior and overall fuel availability. Details remain unconfirmed regarding potential further adjustments in the coming weeks.

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The price of petrol in Nigeria has seen a dramatic increase, now reaching N1,400 per litre. This surge follows a period where petrol was available at approximately N937 per litre at some stations, indicating a significant rise in fuel costs.

In recent developments, Dangote Petroleum Refinery has raised its gantry price for petrol to N1,175 per litre. This adjustment is part of a broader trend influenced by global crude oil prices, which have surged above $80 per barrel, affecting local fuel pricing.

Some filling stations have reported selling petrol at prices ranging from N1,250 to N1,400, reflecting the volatile nature of the market. Diesel prices have also escalated, now reaching N1,750 per litre.

Industry experts are voicing concerns over the implications of these price hikes. Dr. Chinyere Almona noted that the increases in fuel pump prices are likely to impact transport and food prices, particularly concerning food distribution logistics.

Inflation Concerns

The Organised Private Sector has warned that the rising petrol prices could trigger inflation across various sectors of the economy. Dr. Femi Egbesola emphasized that energy costs, particularly for petrol and diesel, are major drivers of inflation due to their widespread use in multiple industries.

Paul Alaje remarked, “As crude oil goes up, the cost of PMS, diesel and Jet-A1 will also follow,” highlighting the direct correlation between global oil prices and local fuel costs.

Details remain unconfirmed regarding the closure of some filling stations, which may be linked to the current pricing dynamics. Additionally, the ongoing US-Iran conflict adds an element of uncertainty to the future of local fuel prices.

Observers are closely monitoring the situation, as the market has been described as extremely volatile, with replacement costs shifting significantly in recent days, according to a Dangote Petroleum Refinery official.

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Previously, petrol prices in Nigeria were relatively stable, with many consumers accustomed to purchasing fuel at lower rates. However, the recent Dangote fuel price increase has altered this landscape significantly.

On March 8, 2026, Dangote Petroleum Refinery raised its gantry price of Premium Motor Spirit to N995 per litre. This adjustment has caused petrol prices to surge across various regions, now ranging from N1,000 to N1,190 per litre, depending on location and retail outlet.

In Abuja, for instance, petrol prices have escalated to between N1,052 and N1,105 per litre, while in Lagos, prices have reached as high as N1,190 per litre. Kaduna residents are paying between N1,060 and N1,070, and in Gombe, prices vary from N1,080 to N1,250 per litre.

The price hike has led to panic buying in some areas, particularly in Jigawa State, as consumers rush to secure fuel before prices potentially rise further. This situation is exacerbated by the ongoing geopolitical crisis in the Middle East, which has disrupted global oil supply chains and pushed crude oil prices upward.

As a result of these changes, transport fares have also increased. Daniel Ishyaku, a transport operator, noted, “Fuel is now more than N1,000 per litre. I bought petrol at N1,060 today. If I don’t increase the fare, I will run at a loss.” This sentiment is echoed by many in the transport sector.

Furthermore, Abdulazeez Bello expressed frustration, stating, “The price of fuel is now on the other side. How does the government expect us to survive?” Many individuals are feeling the financial strain as salaries remain unchanged despite rising costs.

Analysts warn that rising petrol prices often trigger a chain reaction across the economy, affecting various sectors and leading to increased costs for goods and services. Ibrahim Musa lamented, “We are really suffering. Before now, I could buy fuel with less money and still make a profit at the end of the day.”

With Brent crude prices now exceeding $90 per barrel, the implications of the Dangote fuel price increase are likely to be felt widely across Nigeria’s economy. Details remain unconfirmed regarding any potential government interventions to mitigate these rising costs.

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