On March 10, 2026, Nigeria is witnessing significant economic and political shifts. The Dangote Refinery has raised its gantry rate for Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) petrol to N1,175 per litre from N995 per litre. This adjustment comes amid a backdrop of rising oil prices, which have seen retail prices for petrol in various parts of Nigeria edging toward N950 and even near N1,000.

In the political arena, Governor Dauda Lawal has defected from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC). This move is part of a broader trend, as the lawmaker representing Osun West in the Senate, Lere Oyewumi, has also switched allegiance to the Accord Party. These defections come at a time when the PDP’s National Working Committee (NWC) has rejected a Court of Appeal judgment that nullified the party’s national convention.

Meanwhile, the economic landscape is further complicated by the depreciation of the Naira, which has fallen to N1,425 per dollar in the official market, marking its lowest value in two months. The Central Bank of Nigeria reported a N27 depreciation for the currency, raising concerns about the country’s economic stability.

In terms of security, Nigeria continues to face challenges, with reports of troops eliminating terrorists in Kadam Forest, Sokoto. However, the situation remains precarious as terrorists recently kidnapped a local government chairman and two others in Ondo, highlighting ongoing security issues.

The Dangote Refinery, with an installed capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, has also adjusted its gantry prices upward to around N874 per litre due to conflict-driven oil surges. Despite these adjustments, Nigeria’s oil production remains below long-term targets, raising questions about the country’s ability to meet its energy needs.

This sequence of events is critical for stakeholders in Nigeria, as the rising petrol prices and currency depreciation could have far-reaching implications for the economy and political landscape. The ongoing shifts in party allegiance may also influence future electoral outcomes.

As Nigeria navigates these complex challenges, the interplay between economic policies, political dynamics, and security issues will be crucial in shaping the nation’s future.

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The current Middle East crisis is affecting overall global energy prices, crude oil, LNG and other fuels, and that has implications for refined product pricing globally. This statement from a source at the Dangote refinery underscores the challenges facing Nigeria’s fuel market as the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) has raised fuel prices for the second time in less than 24 hours.

As of March 8, 2026, the NNPCL adjusted its pump price from N967 to N1,082 per liter in Abuja. Retail pump prices in several states now exceed N1,000 per liter, with some stations dispensing petrol at about N1,200 per liter.

The increase follows a recent surge in crude oil prices, which have risen above $90 per barrel due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This situation has created a ripple effect on fuel pricing across the globe.

In response to these market conditions, the Dangote refinery has temporarily suspended the loading of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol). The refinery’s gantry price has also increased from N874 to N995 per liter.

Despite the refinery’s operational challenges, Jeremiah Olatide, an industry expert, noted, If the refinery was not operating, petrol prices in Nigeria could easily have reached N1,500 per litre. This highlights the critical role local refining plays in stabilizing fuel prices.

However, not everyone is convinced about the motivations behind these price hikes. Mohammed Ibrahim, a fuel importer, stated, What we are seeing is nothing but deliberate blackmail by some fuel importers who feel threatened by local refining.

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has begun moves to secure crude oil supply for the Dangote Petroleum Refinery through third-party international traders. Currently, the refinery receives just five cargoes a month from NNPC, instead of the 13 cargoes required under the naira-for-crude policy.

As the situation develops, the immediate impact of the crude oil supply intervention on petrol prices remains unclear. Additionally, the long-term effects of geopolitical tensions on fuel prices are uncertain. Details remain unconfirmed.

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“The current Middle East crisis is affecting overall global energy prices, crude oil, LNG and other fuels, and that has implications for refined product pricing globally,” stated a source from the Dangote refinery. This statement comes as Nigeria grapples with a significant fuel price hike, marking the second increase in less than 24 hours.

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) has adjusted its pump price from N967 to N1,082 per liter in Abuja, representing a N115 increase. Retail pump prices in several states now exceed N1,000 per litre, raising concerns among consumers and businesses.

In a related development, the Dangote refinery has temporarily suspended the loading of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol), further complicating the supply situation. The refinery has cautioned that sourcing crude internationally may not immediately reduce pump prices, as they currently receive just five cargoes a month from NNPC, instead of the 13 cargoes required.

“If the refinery was not operating, petrol prices in Nigeria could easily have reached N1,500 per litre,” remarked Jeremiah Olatide, highlighting the critical role of local refining in stabilizing prices.

The latest adjustments in fuel pricing have been attributed to crude price volatility, particularly influenced by the ongoing Iran–US–Israel conflict affecting the Gulf region. Billy Gillis-Harry, a spokesperson for the Dangote Refinery, noted that the gantry petrol price hike and retail price adjustment are direct consequences of these global market fluctuations.

Additionally, US crude exports to Nigeria surged to 41.13 million barrels in 2025, a significant increase from 15.79 million barrels in 2024. This surge reflects the changing dynamics of global oil supply and demand.

Mohammed Ibrahim, a local fuel importer, criticized the situation, stating, “What we are seeing is nothing but deliberate blackmail by some fuel importers who feel threatened by local refining.” This sentiment underscores the tensions within the fuel supply chain as local refiners compete with international suppliers.

Details remain unconfirmed regarding the exact impact of the fuel price hike on transport fares and the cost of goods. As consumers brace for higher costs, the government and industry stakeholders are expected to monitor the situation closely.

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