The current Middle East crisis is affecting overall global energy prices, crude oil, LNG and other fuels, and that has implications for refined product pricing globally. This statement from a source at the Dangote refinery underscores the challenges facing Nigeria’s fuel market as the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) has raised fuel prices for the second time in less than 24 hours.

As of March 8, 2026, the NNPCL adjusted its pump price from N967 to N1,082 per liter in Abuja. Retail pump prices in several states now exceed N1,000 per liter, with some stations dispensing petrol at about N1,200 per liter.

The increase follows a recent surge in crude oil prices, which have risen above $90 per barrel due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This situation has created a ripple effect on fuel pricing across the globe.

In response to these market conditions, the Dangote refinery has temporarily suspended the loading of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol). The refinery’s gantry price has also increased from N874 to N995 per liter.

Despite the refinery’s operational challenges, Jeremiah Olatide, an industry expert, noted, If the refinery was not operating, petrol prices in Nigeria could easily have reached N1,500 per litre. This highlights the critical role local refining plays in stabilizing fuel prices.

However, not everyone is convinced about the motivations behind these price hikes. Mohammed Ibrahim, a fuel importer, stated, What we are seeing is nothing but deliberate blackmail by some fuel importers who feel threatened by local refining.

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has begun moves to secure crude oil supply for the Dangote Petroleum Refinery through third-party international traders. Currently, the refinery receives just five cargoes a month from NNPC, instead of the 13 cargoes required under the naira-for-crude policy.

As the situation develops, the immediate impact of the crude oil supply intervention on petrol prices remains unclear. Additionally, the long-term effects of geopolitical tensions on fuel prices are uncertain. Details remain unconfirmed.

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“The current Middle East crisis is affecting overall global energy prices, crude oil, LNG and other fuels, and that has implications for refined product pricing globally,” stated a source from the Dangote refinery. This statement comes as Nigeria grapples with a significant fuel price hike, marking the second increase in less than 24 hours.

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) has adjusted its pump price from N967 to N1,082 per liter in Abuja, representing a N115 increase. Retail pump prices in several states now exceed N1,000 per litre, raising concerns among consumers and businesses.

In a related development, the Dangote refinery has temporarily suspended the loading of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol), further complicating the supply situation. The refinery has cautioned that sourcing crude internationally may not immediately reduce pump prices, as they currently receive just five cargoes a month from NNPC, instead of the 13 cargoes required.

“If the refinery was not operating, petrol prices in Nigeria could easily have reached N1,500 per litre,” remarked Jeremiah Olatide, highlighting the critical role of local refining in stabilizing prices.

The latest adjustments in fuel pricing have been attributed to crude price volatility, particularly influenced by the ongoing Iran–US–Israel conflict affecting the Gulf region. Billy Gillis-Harry, a spokesperson for the Dangote Refinery, noted that the gantry petrol price hike and retail price adjustment are direct consequences of these global market fluctuations.

Additionally, US crude exports to Nigeria surged to 41.13 million barrels in 2025, a significant increase from 15.79 million barrels in 2024. This surge reflects the changing dynamics of global oil supply and demand.

Mohammed Ibrahim, a local fuel importer, criticized the situation, stating, “What we are seeing is nothing but deliberate blackmail by some fuel importers who feel threatened by local refining.” This sentiment underscores the tensions within the fuel supply chain as local refiners compete with international suppliers.

Details remain unconfirmed regarding the exact impact of the fuel price hike on transport fares and the cost of goods. As consumers brace for higher costs, the government and industry stakeholders are expected to monitor the situation closely.

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